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New Trade $AAPL Picking

AAPLshotlyanticipatedfiscalQ4earningsreportwasmetwithabigolthumpthisweek,withthestockdownalittlemorethan1%sincelastFriday,andtheonedayeventmovedramaticallyunder-performingoptionsmarketmakersexpectationsofalmost6%。

OurtradeintotheprintwastoselltheimpliedmovebywayofanIronCondor(AdultSwimTrade$AAPL:SellingtheImpliedMove)aswethoughtthatafterthestocksrecentrunbacktounchangedontheyearwouldhavesomeresistanceatthatlevel,andalsothattheexpectationsweredampenedbythecompanysSeptpre-announcement。

WealsothoughtthatupsidetoQ1guidancewaslikelytobemutedbyproductconstraintswiththenewiPhone5SandtheiPadMini。

AllthiswiththebackdropofanIcahnputat$525andthesignificantsupportlevelof500below。

Itismyviewnowthatthestockwillconsolidateabitherebutpossiblymakearuntounchangedontheyearandpossiblytheprevious2013highsof$555aswegettothemeatofoftheholidaysellingseasonontheinfamousCyberMondayonDec2nd。

IwanttomakeabullishbetwithdefinedriskthatAAPLwillparticipateinanyrallypredicatedonpositiveconsumersentimentintotheholidayseasonastherecentproductrefreshplacesthematthetopofmostsmusthavesliststhisholidayseason。

Trade?

AAPL($518。

50)BoughtDec525/550/575CallButterflyfor4。

00

Bought1Dec525Callfor15。

00

Sold2Dec550Callsat7。

00eachforatotalof14。

00

Bought1Dec575Callfor3。

00

Break-EvenonDecExpiration:

Profits:btwn529and571makeupto21。

00,maxgainof21。

00at$550

Losses:btwn529and525loseupto4。

00,btwn571and575loseupt04。

00,maxlossof4below525andabove575

TradeRationale?

$490to$500seemslikeveryhealthyneartermsupport,butIamnotsurebuyingthestockhere,possiblyrisking$20to$25tomakewhatIthinkcouldbe$20to$25overthenext6weeksmakesawholeheckofalotofsense?